How Accurate Are Indian Stock Analysts? (2026 Empirical Benchmark & Press Kit)
Aggregate outcome study across 27,954 public NSE stock recommendations (21,736 resolved calls), scoring methodology, and open CC BY 4.0 datasets for journalists and researchers.
Across 27,954 public NSE stock recommendations (21,736 resolved outcomes and 6,218 active calls across 1,236 NSE-listed equities and 303 tracked brokerages and SEBI-registered analysts) audited against official NSE OHLCV candle data on StockTipsArena, the overall resolved target-hit rate is 37.89% (55.24% decided win rate excluding time-expired calls), generating a +1.93% mean realized return versus +0.49% for the horizon-matched Nifty 50 benchmark (+1.44% excess return). Stratifying by holding period reveals a sharp structural divide: Long-Term institutional BUY calls (6,270 resolved) achieve a 62.63% target-hit rate (+6.76% mean return), whereas short-horizon Swing BUY calls (8,652 resolved) achieve a 26.10% target-hit rate (-0.35% mean return) and Intraday BUY calls (4,142 resolved) achieve a 31.70% target-hit rate (-0.06% mean return).
1. Aggregate Outcome Accuracy by Holding Horizon (NSE BUY Calls)
Financial journalists and researchers may reproduce or cite the table below freely with attribution to StockTipsArena (stocktipsarena.com).
| Horizon Bucket | Total Calls | Resolved | Target Hit | SL Hit | Expired | Target Hit % | Decided Win % | Mean P&L | Nifty 50 Bench |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term (LONG_TERM) | 11,412 | 6,270 | 3,927 | 208 | 2,135 | 62.63% | 94.97% | +6.76% | +1.71% |
| Swing (SWING) | 8,977 | 8,652 | 2,258 | 4,247 | 2,147 | 26.10% | 34.71% | -0.35% | -0.13% |
| Intraday (INTRADAY) | 4,142 | 4,142 | 1,313 | 1,482 | 1,347 | 31.70% | 46.97% | -0.06% | -0.04% |
| Short-Term (SHORT_TERM) | 2,639 | 2,165 | 547 | 511 | 1,107 | 25.27% | 51.70% | -0.26% | -0.76% |
| BTST / Overnight (BTST) | 256 | 254 | 86 | 109 | 59 | 33.86% | 44.10% | +0.18% | +0.05% |
2. Scoring Methodology & Anti-Gaming Rules
- Official SEBI Provenance Only: Every call in the public corpus originates from an analyst, research house, or brokerage holding a verified SEBI registration (
INH…Research Analyst,INA…Investment Adviser, orINZ…Broker) and links back to its primary broadcast clip, broker PDF, or media publication. - No P&L Until the Market Trades There: A call with an explicit entry band does not begin scoring until official NSE session bars print inside or through the stated entry price. Unfilled setups expire void without manufacturing artificial wins or losses.
- Continuous Session & Closing Auction (CAS) Replay: Outcomes (
TARGET_HIT,SL_HIT,EXPIRED) are evaluated chronologically against 1-minute and daily NSE OHLCV candles, respecting NSE's Closing Auction Session (15:15–15:30 IST) and stop-loss basis rules (intraday vs. closing-basis stops). - SEBI Advertisement Code & PaRRVA Neutrality: StockTipsArena is an independent data aggregator, not an investment adviser. Public press studies report market-wide horizon and sector aggregates rather than superlative individual advisor rankings.
3. Open Datasets, Media Citations & Press Contact
Reporters at Indian financial publications may cite StockTipsArena consensus targets and horizon statistics directly (e.g., “According to StockTipsArena data…”) with a link to the relevant stock, sector, or benchmark page.
Not investment advice · Data may contain errors.